The Rand Corporation has just released a research report on causes and potential remedies for America’s decline. It contains important insights from history in a relatively condensed format. I will condense it further here, but the complete report deserves an audience.
The decline and ultimate failure of great powers has been fertile ground for scholars at least since Gibbon’s dissection of the Roman Empire. Rand (in Ch. 4) distils the known causes of such decline to the following:
· Complacency (or “inadequate national ambition”)
· Fractured national identity
· Limitations on private opportunities
· Lack of public investment
· Decline in foundational institutions
· Rigid orthodoxy
Personally, I would add short-termism, free-riding (skimming portions of the economic or social surpluses of productive activities), and loss of moral fiber.
It is hard to deny that 21st century America suffers from most of these maladies to a greater or lesser degree. What happened to ambitious goals like “manifest destiny,” universal education, “a chicken in every pot,” electrification of the nation and interstate highways, making the world “safe for democracy,” rebuilding war torn Europe, civil and women’s rights, tearing down the Berlin Wall, and “putting a man on the moon”? Too many politicians have valued party above nation too often. Too few place a premium on future generations. Public investment has waned dramatically, especially in R&D. Few foundational institutions of the 20th century retain their luster today.
Rand draws an important distinction between great powers that have already fallen and those that have only declined from their apex. The Roman Empire wasn’t coming back, but England, for example, rallied more than once to regain its greatness. Backing away from the precipice is feasible; climbing back up the cliff is unlikely and painful.
America has no shortage of doomsayers, often aligned with one or the other of the political extremes. Viewed from the far right or left, the opposition is dangerously un-American. Biden will allow the nation to be sacked by immigrants, or Trump will establish a dictatorship. But these extremist numbers are small and may actually be declining. Both Trump and Biden became less popular during their Presidencies, and both Fox News and MSNBC viewership have fallen sharply in recent years.
Compromise legislation like the 2023 debt ceiling increase and the recent military aid package passes with decisive bipartisan majorities once released from the death grips of the partisan leadership. Most mainstream Americans still believe in civility and compromise. They retain hope for the nation. They recognize that solutions may not always be comfortable. But this commonsense core will matter only if they can wield their power of the ballot. The parties are re-nominating the two most unpopular presidents in living memory. This is a sad echo of the 2016 and 2020 elections, both decided by votes against the loser rather than votes for the winner. What America wants in the White House will not be on the menu.
That leaves Congress. The 1994 Contract with America demonstrated how a Congressional election tide may change the flow in DC. It was decided not by personalities but by issues, as the electorate turned out to confront the nation’s problems. Six productive years of governance ensued, highlighted by welfare reform and budget surpluses, crafted through compromise and passed with bipartisan majorities.
Compromise and bipartisanship have been scarce commodities in Washington through most of this century. It will take serious organizing efforts and voter commitment to achieve anything constructive in this dismal election year. The ends are clearer than the means.
Rand offers some insights from history. Most importantly, it reminds us of the need for America to recover its vitality and perform its leadership role in the world. Only voters can start that recovery.